How to Bet on Futures in the Off-Season
The off-season can feel like a dead zone for sports bettors. There are no games to watch, no daily lines to scan, and not much action to jump into, at least on the surface. For sharp bettors looking to stay ahead of the market, the off-season presents one of the best opportunities to explore futures betting.
Futures markets give bettors a chance to wager on long-term outcomes like which team will win the championship, which rookie might take home Rookie of the Year, or which club is most likely to bounce back from a losing season. Odds are posted weeks or even months in advance, and that early window is often where the best value lies. Before media buzz, training camp updates, or preseason performances start moving the lines, bettors can spot opportunities and grab lines that might not be around later.
Circa Sports offers futures markets year-round with early lines and competitive odds that appeal to both casual players and sharp bettors. If you’re looking to stay involved when the calendar slows down, learning how to bet on futures is a smart way to stay sharp and gain an edge before the action starts.
What Are Futures Bets?
Futures betting is all about taking a long view. Instead of betting on a single game or event happening soon, a futures bet is placed on something that will be decided weeks or even months down the road. These wagers cover big-picture outcomes like who wins the championship, which player takes home MVP, or how many games a team wins over a season.
The odds for futures bets are usually released well ahead of time, sometimes right after the previous season ends. That early release gives bettors the chance to lock in a price before new information or team momentum shifts the odds. And since outcomes are still uncertain, sportsbooks set lines based on forecasts and projections, not results.
What makes a futures bet different from a typical game wager is the timeline and payout. Although futures tie up your bankroll for a longer period, placing the right bet early often yields a significantly higher return. For example, betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the championship in July will almost always pay out more than betting them the week of the big game. Or backing a player for MVP before training camp might offer longer odds than after they start heating up mid-season.
Why Bet Futures in the Off-Season?
The off-season is when futures betting gets interesting. With games months away and rosters still in flux, the markets are based on projections instead of proof. That means the odds are less efficient, giving sharp bettors a chance to find value before the public catches on.
Oddsmakers rely on projections, not certainty. They post lines based on expected team strength, returning players, new signings, and historical performance. But until training camps open or preseason games are played, there’s a lot of guesswork. That’s where the opportunity lies. A team coming off a rough season might be undervalued even if it made key upgrades, or a player on the rise might be overlooked for awards until the buzz builds. Bettors who do their homework early can often grab better numbers before the market shifts.
Timing is key here. The further out you place your futures bets, the more potential there is for big payouts, assuming you’re on the right side of the bet. Once the public starts betting a team heavily or media coverage starts driving hype, those odds shrink quickly. Take an NBA rookie, for example. Betting on them to win Rookie of the Year before the Summer League starts could land you a much better number than waiting until they drop 30 in a nationally televised game.
What to Watch: Roster Moves, Drafts, and Injuries
Futures markets move for a reason, and in the off-season, those reasons often come from roster changes, draft picks, or injury news. Paying attention to these updates can help bettors predict where the odds are headed and find value before the lines react.
One of the biggest shifts comes from roster moves. Free agency signings, trades, and retirements all have ripple effects. When a star player joins a contender, their championship odds might shorten quickly. On the flip side, when a team loses a key piece or looks like they’re rebuilding, the market adjusts. The NFL off-season is packed with trades and transactions, and teams that make aggressive upgrades can shift quickly in the futures market. A team trading for a franchise quarterback or reloading with talent in key positions can go from a longshot to a favorite in a hurry.
Draft results also give important clues. A team picking early and grabbing a developmental prospect is probably a year or two away. But a team trading up for a polished prospect with a top-five pick may be signaling that it’s ready to contend immediately.
Injuries play a huge role too. Off-season injury updates, whether it’s a player rehabbing a torn ACL or returning from back surgery, can swing a team’s entire outlook. MLB bettors, for example, pay close attention to pitcher injury reports and recovery timelines. If a team’s ace is expected to miss time or has a delayed start to spring training, that could affect division and win total markets.
Following team insiders, local beat writers, and official press conferences can provide an edge during the off-season. These sources often break injury or roster news hours before sportsbooks adjust their lines. Getting news even a few hours early can give bettors a huge edge in locking in favorable futures odds.
Popular Futures Markets to Explore
There’s no shortage of futures markets to dig into, and the off-season is a great time to explore the options before the action begins. The most popular markets cover both team success and individual accolades, giving bettors plenty of ways to stay involved year-round.
At the top of the list are league championship bets. Whether it’s the World Series, NBA Finals, or Stanley Cup, bettors can wager on which team will win it all before a single regular season game is played. These odds are usually posted early and can shift dramatically based on roster changes or preseason coverage.
Division and conference winners are also available across all the major leagues. These markets often present more manageable odds and can offer great value when targeting teams in weaker divisions or those set up for a breakout season.
Player award markets are another key area for futures betting. Bettors can pick MVP winners, Rookie of the Year candidates, Cy Young hopefuls, or Defensive Player of the Year in various leagues. These bets are popular in the off-season when narratives haven’t formed yet and the odds are still soft.
While season win totals usually drop closer to the preseason, they’re still worth monitoring early. They can offer a different way to approach team performance, especially if you have a strong read on a team’s trajectory.
Tips for Betting on Futures in the Off-Season
Futures betting rewards timing, research, and patience, but there are a few habits that can help bettors get the most out of their off-season wagers.
Shop Lines
First, shop for lines when you can. Circa Sports often posts early and aggressive futures prices, giving bettors a chance to grab better value before odds shift elsewhere. Checking the app regularly can help you spot movement and get in at the right time.
Spread Your Bets
It’s also smart to spread your bets across different markets. Rather than going all-in on one MVP or one team to win the title, mix things up. Combine player props with team futures to balance risk and give yourself more ways to cash when sports betting.
Keep Track of Your Futures Bets
Since these bets take months to resolve, it’s helpful to keep a simple futures tracker. A simple spreadsheet or notes app can do the trick. Log your bet, the odds, the amount, and the reasoning. It’ll save you the hassle of searching through your history later.
Be Cautious With Longshots
Be cautious with longshots. While longshots offer tempting payouts, their high odds usually reflect a low probability of winning. If you like a team with long odds to win it all, see if a more realistic market is available.
Make the Most of the Off-Season
The off-season doesn’t have to be a break for sports bettors. It’s actually one of the best times to build a futures portfolio, grab value before the market shifts, and stay engaged with what’s happening behind the scenes. With so much movement in rosters, draft results, and injury news, there’s no shortage of angles to explore.
By doing the research early and taking advantage of timing, bettors can find opportunities that might not be there once the season starts. The key is staying active, thinking long-term, and betting with purpose.
Download the Circa Sports App Today
Download the Circa Sports app today and get a jump on the futures board before the market moves.